Coffee news from origin to cup, every Monday. Week of September 28, 2026 · San Salvador, El Salvador
The market: coffee bounces off a three-month low
Brazil's record crop dragged prices down all month. On Monday, buyers came back.
Arabica futures slid through September as Brazil's forecasts kept growing: the USDA now sees a record 71.9 million bags, and StoneX a 10-million-bag global surplus this year. By Friday the front-month contract was down about 10% on the month.
On Monday the March contract, the one Central American new-crop coffee is priced against, rallied nearly 6 cents. What comes next depends on Brazil's December–March rains and on how hard El Niño hits the rest of the coffee belt.
| Contract | Fri Sep 25 settle | Mon a.m. |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2026 | 278.60 | +6.15 |
| Mar 2027 | 271.25 | +5.85 |
| May 2027 | 268.90 | +5.45 |
This is a commodity price. Specialty coffee like ours is negotiated directly between roaster and grower, and trades well above it.
Bull vs. Bear
Two market watchers, two reads on the same crop.
The bear case · Judith Ganes
"History was made": Brazil's own count comes in high. For the first time, Brazil's crop agency Conab put its arabica estimate (48.2 million bags) above the USDA's, the second-largest crop on record. She expects the USDA to raise its number in January.
The bull case · Maja Wallengren
"Not that much coffee": doubts about Brazil's numbers. She argues Conab's figure is inflated and that weak crops elsewhere, Central America included, will cut world exports from October. She reads Monday's rally as the market starting to agree.
El Salvador
- Exports up 17.6%. Coffee earned $176.0 million from January to August, leading the country's traditional exports.
- On tour abroad. Tastings in Berlin and Istanbul put Salvadoran Pacamara, Cuscatleco and Bourbon in front of buyers.
Around the world
- Starbucks shrinks. 250 more North American stores close, costing up to $300 million.
- Stored sunshine. Sandia Labs and an Albuquerque roaster heated a drum roaster with solar energy stored in rocks.
- More decaf on the way. Swiss Water is investing $4.4 million to grow its decaf capacity 15% by July 2027.
Weather & El Niño
Warm and stormy in San Salvador: highs near 30 °C, afternoon storms, and more rain likely this week. MARN gives a very strong El Niño better than 90% odds, peaking October to December.
From the roastery: our pick, Gesha Natural
A light-roasted natural Gesha from Alfredo Mena's Finca Villa España in Concepción de Ataco. $25 for a 225 g bag.
Thursday, October 1, is International Coffee Day. Come celebrate with us.
Take El Salvador home. Our single-origin Salvadoran coffees, roasted in San Salvador and shipped worldwide. Shop our coffees →
Sources: ICE futures via Investing.com and Barchart; Trading Economics; Perfect Daily Grind; World Coffee Portal; Daily Coffee News; J. Ganes Consulting; Maja Wallengren (@SpillingTheBean); Infobae; El Diario de Hoy; MARN. For information only.