Coffee news from origin to cup, every Monday. Week of October 5, 2026 · San Salvador, El Salvador
The market: rain-soaked Brazil lifts coffee off its lows
March arabica gained 9 cents on the week as wet weather raised quality worries.
Heavy rain in Brazil delayed the harvest and hurt the drying of its best beans, and certified arabica stocks in exchange warehouses are still near 27-year lows. The March contract climbed from 271.25 to 280.50 cents a pound (Trading Economics).
A stronger dollar slowed the rally mid-week, and Brazil still expects a record 67.6 million bags. Next to watch: El Niño, and whether the rain comes to Minas Gerais from December.
| Contract | Fri Oct 2 settle | Week |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2027 | 280.50 | +9.25 |
| Dec 2026 | 290.75 | +12.15 |
This is a commodity price. Specialty coffee like ours is negotiated directly between roaster and grower, and trades well above it.
Bull vs. Bear
Same week, same supply picture, opposite reads.
The bear case · Judith Ganes
Exports are up, not down. ICO data show August exports 1.6 million bags above last year, with Brazil and Vietnam both shipping more (Sep 30). On Uganda's drought: the hit regions grow about 30% of its coffee.
The bull case · Maja Wallengren
“The coffee is not there.” She says the market is rejecting Brazil's big crop numbers as losses mount across origins, and points to Colombia's August arabica exports, down 10.1% to 1.05 million bags (Oct 2).
El Salvador
- Best harvest since 2012. The ISC puts the 2025/26 crop at 963,650 quintals, up 12.2% (Infobae).
- Coffee mountains. The Apaneca-Ilamatepec range grows 58% of the country's coffee.
Around the world
- $18,004 a kilo. A Panama Geisha topped this year's Best of Panama auction (Perfect Daily Grind).
- Paper pods out. Nespresso will phase out its home-compostable paper capsules (World Coffee Portal).
Weather & El Niño
Highs near 28 °C in San Salvador, cooler nights and afternoon storms. A very strong El Niño is still expected to peak October–December (MARN).
From the roastery: our pick, Arará Natural
A natural from JP Viaud's Finca El Caoba in Los Naranjos, high in Apaneca-Ilamatepec. In our Guara Limited Edition bag, $15.
Take El Salvador home.
Our single-origin Salvadoran coffees, roasted in San Salvador and shipped worldwide.
Sources: ICE via Barchart; Trading Economics; Perfect Daily Grind; World Coffee Portal; J. Ganes; M. Wallengren; Infobae; ISC; MARN. For information only.